This is the consensus forecast given by economists surveyed by RBC and Forbes. This decision is due to the need to control inflation, which, despite slowing to 9.92% in annual terms, remains high. According to the Central Bank, inflation expectations of the population have increased to 14%.
Photo: ru.freepik.com
The ruble exchange rate, which has strengthened over the past month, as well as a slowdown in corporate and consumer lending also play an important role in the Central Bank's decision. Most analysts interviewed by the publications believe that the rate will remain unchanged, but some experts do not rule out its increase to 22-25% if inflationary pressures continue to increase.
The Bank of Russia is expected to maintain a restrained rhetoric, emphasizing the need to control inflation and stabilize the economy. Long-term forecasts suggest that the average key rate in 2025 will be 20-21%, and by 2026 it may decrease to 15%. Inflation is projected at 6.8% by the end of 2025 and 4% by 2027.
Recall that at the last meeting of the board of directors, the regulator decided to keep the base rate at 21%.
