The Central Bank called such a scenario "risky" and applicable in the event of a global financial crisis, increased sanctions against the Russian Federation, as well as a drop in global demand amid a recession in developed countries. The regulator added that in such a situation, oil will become cheaper and the trend towards deglobalization will increase.
Photo: ru.freepik.com
The Central Bank noted that in the described scenario, it will be necessary to raise the key rate, the projected increase in consumer prices will be up to 13-15%. Tight monetary policy in the event of a global crisis will continue in 2026.
If the disinfection scenario is implemented, the Central Bank plans to reduce the rate to 12-14% in 2025 and to 9-10% in 2026.
Recall that last Monday, HSE economist Georgy Ostapkovich shared his forecast on the Central Bank's monetary policy this year. According to the expert, the key rate will not exceed 20%.
