An "ideal storm" refers to the cumulative effect of adverse factors, the simultaneity of which enhances the overall negative effect. According to Kogan, the phenomenon will lead to a drop in the country's GDP.
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The expert explained that the reasons for this development will be several factors: the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, the high growth rate of state revenues (in which the authorities take more from the population and business than they give), as well as tightening the conditions for issuing loans to both individuals and legal entities. In addition, due to the cancellation of preferential mortgages, demand and prices in the construction sector are expected to fall.
Kogan added that the result of the process could be a decline in the Russian economy over the course of "a couple of quarters" next year.
Recall that last week the Central Bank raised the forecast for inflation in Russia in 2024 to 8-8.5%. The regulator also revised the indicator of the growth rate of prices for goods and services planned for next year.
